Due to the limited visibility of the reliability target at(2)

能源安详委员会将会在今年5月和6月审议该草案并在7月发布最终计划方案。如最终计划方案得到澳大利亚当局委员会核准，则将于2018年8月开始相应的立法和法则拟定。当前的既定方针是于2019年开始实施靠得住性担保，并在2020年实施排放担保。

Below, we present a summary of the two major components of the draft NEG design, the “reliability guarantee” and the “emissions guarantee”, as well as a high level analysis of the ensuing implications for Chinese power developers, who are either already holding power generation assets or are eyeing off dispatchable generation or renewable energy opportunities in the Australian market.

With respect to non-compliant retailers, the ESB has indicated that the Australian Energy Regulator (AER) may use its discretion in making use of its existing compliance tools, such as imposing of increased prudential requirements, restrictions on accepting new customers, administrative and enforceable undertakings, and revocation of retailer authorizations.

本文对保障打算的两个主要构成部门“靠得住性担保”和“减排担保”进行了总结，并对该打算对中国电力投资者大概发生的潜伏影响做出了简要阐明，这类投资者主要包罗已在澳大利亚持有发电类资产或存眷澳大利亚可调理电力生产和可再生能源市场时机的中国电力开辟者。

In addition, under the RET scheme, an entity is liable to surrender LGCs if it is the first person to acquire electricity delivered on a grid that has a capacity of 100 MW or more. Under the NEG, a concept of Market Customers is adopted which includes both electricity retailers and large customers registered directly in the National Electricity Market (NEM) and the owners/operators of energy storage facilities which are required to register as both generators and customer in the NEM (hence our mentioning of “retailers” in this article should be broadly construed to include all of the above entities in terms of liable entities under the NEG).

2018年4月20日，澳大利亚疆域事务部召开集会会议审议由澳大利亚联邦当局认真计划实施的国度能源保障打算（下称“保障打算”，National Energy Guarantee，NEG）的顶层计划方案草稿。作为澳大利亚近期最重要的能源改造之一，保障打算相关法案由联邦当局新创立的能源安详委员会（Energy Security Board，ESB)）认真详细草拟事情。本次集会会议主要聚焦于拟议实施的减排方针的充实性。颠末最后的接头和政治游说，澳大利亚当局委员会(Council of Australian Governments，COAG)抉择支持当前版本的保障打算继承推进至最终计划阶段。

详细而言，能源安详委员会最近果真的顶层方案计划文件明晰体现当局将不会区别对待方针打算下现有的发电商和在引入保障打算后进入市场的新发电商。也就是说，上述两类供给商所发的电力都应可以用作满脚保障打算下减排担保的要求。相应的，若是减排担保按预期计划在2020年1月1日生效，则方针打算下的发电商和零售商（主要是零售商）在2030年该打算失效前将有十年的年华需要同时遵守方针打算与保障打算。值得留意的是，方针打算下所发生的证书也能计入保障打算，用于计较电力零售商均匀排放强度的方针。

已往，可再生能源方针打算（下称“方针打算”，Renewable Energy Target，RET）作为澳大利亚当局的主要政策器材引导了大大都对内地新能源发电市场的投资。且方针打算下通过对大局限电力供给证书(下称“证书”Large-scale Generation Certificates，LGCs)的生意业务为投资人提供了须要的投资回报。技能上来讲，证书的实质就是一种可生意业务的金融类产物。但就今朝的及时生意业务行为来讲，市场对质墨客意业务的预期收入广泛持气馁立场。出格是2022年今后，可再生能源方针将全部到达，这意味着大量证书将充斥市场从而进一步压低生意业务价值。另一方面，能源安详委员会已经体现，方针打算至2030年都将一连有效，且不会区别对待该打算下供给的电力和在保障打算实施后新进入市场的电力供给。

事实上，我们已经看到了来自中国的电力开辟者对付新机会的极大乐趣。

This presents a real opportunity for Chinese power investors to increase their existing portfolio or to develop a new portfolio of dispatchable and renewable assets in the Australian market.

Due to the limited visibility of the reliability target at this point, we discuss here a couple of scenarios to illustrate how the emissions target will influence retailer behavior, which in turn will impact the electricity supply side. First, when the reliability target is properly set, or if the long-term forecasts show a possible insufficiency of dispatchable capacity to meet peak demand, retailers should be incentivized to write longer term contracts which will encourage investment in new power plant. On the other hand, if the reliability target does not look like being invoked (if the long-term forecasts are showing that there is sufficient dispatchable capacity to meet peak demand) or if it is invoked, but not substantially above retailer’s existing contracted positions, a retailer that owns generation assets may be able to press on their existing portfolio of assets to meet near term obligations meaning less new investment stimulation. But overall, we consider that implementation of the reliability guarantee and emissions guarantee should provide policy certainty to developers and operators of energy generation plant in Australia, which is clearly advantageous.

保障打算和方针打算的几个要害差异点

对付违反上述担保的电力零售商，能源安详委员会体现，澳大利亚能源禁锢局（“Australian Energy Regulator ，AER）将有权力用一些现有的合规手段来予以惩处，譬喻提高隆重性要求、限制其接管新客户，令其做出详细可行的行政理睬、以及取消零售商授权等。

Certain key differences between the NEG and the RET

因此，保障打算给中国电力投资者带来了在澳大利亚电力市场上的新投资时机，这包罗增加其现有的电力资产或投资开辟新的可调理或可再生电力资产。

We are already seeing substantial interest in these new opportunities, particularly from Chinese developers.

The final NEG design will be accompanied by draft legislation for its implementation.  The final design will be presented at and voted on at the next meeting of the COAG Energy Council in August 2018 with legislation to be implemented before the end of the year.

While the RET scheme requires the creation and surrender of LGCs, the emissions guarantee will not involve the creation or transfer of any permits or certificates. Rather, the emissions guarantee will involve retailers calculating the average emissions intensity of their load and ensuring this level remains below their mandated threshold. Under the NEG, retailers may also be able to purchase emissions offsets as a way of reducing the emissions intensity of their load in certain circumstances, something that is not permitted under the RET scheme.  The Australian Government has yet to make a final decisions on offset, and the Australian renewable industry is very opposed to allowing offsets.

To date, it appears that the Australian Federal Government is well aware of the importance of policy certainty that encourages new investment in the dispatchable and renewable sectors. While the final design of the NEG is still in the making, the general high-level analysis of the power market seems to suggest that the NEG has the potential to deliver energy supply reliability and emissions reductions by increasing dispatchable and renewable sources of generation/storage, which ultimately will curb pressure on energy price rises.

最初的减排方针是按十年期（2021-2031）设定，而且每5年审查一次（与《巴黎协定》的审查周期一致）且每次审查时将设定未来5年的减排方针。所有的减排方针只能通过提前5年通知的形式进型徜更。对付靠得住性担保的实施方针，各地域（即相应的澳大利亚各州）将宣布其当地未来10年对付电力供应/需求的靠得住性预测作为设定实施靠得住性方针的参考基本。靠得住性预测会每年更新以反应对付供应/需求的重大变革，譬喻因重要发电企业封锁导致的变革等。

新的靠得住性和排放尺度打算的实施为中国电力开辟者提供了新的市场机会。譬喻，具备电力存储本领的风电和光伏发电、抽水蓄能电站、天然气发电和其他具备电力储蓄成果的、且能在短年华内经通知后可以顿时发电的供电需求将会增长。同时，对可再生能源发电，譬喻风能和光伏发电（岂论是否具备电力储蓄本领），水电及生物能源发电，的需求也将增长以满脚排放担保。另外，对频率哄骗、电力网络支持以及需求管理处事也会相应增长。最近，澳大利亚能源市场运营机构（Australian Energy Market Operator，AEMO）已确定电网级此外蓄电池储能系统具备提供优良网络支持和哄骗处事的本领，并正在思量为该种高机能支持装备开拓新的市场。

Under the NEG scheme, in order for a retailer to be in compliant with the NEG requirements, it could choose to, among other options, enter into contracts with generators for low or zero emissions generation or for dispatchable capacity, at the lowest possible cost.

今朝，澳大利亚联邦当局显然已经意识到激昂可调理和可再生能源投资需要充实的政策确定性。尽量保障打算的最终计划方案尚未定稿，电力市场广泛的意见好像都对保障打算的可行性持乐观立场，即通过增加可调理和可再生性发电/存储能源，实现电力供应侧的靠得住性并淘汰碳排放量，最终对能源价值的上涨形成抑制。

The ESB will consult in May and June this year with the final design to be released in July.  If approved by the COAG Council, legislation and rule drafting will commence in August 2018.  The intention still appears to be to commence the reliability guarantee in 2019 and the emissions guarantee in 2020.

实施年华表