Due to the limited visibility of the reliability target at(3)

Historically, most of the new investment in renewable energy generation is being guided by the Renewable Energy Target (RET) and financed by Large-scale Generation Certificates (LGCs), an intangible tradable asset created for the purpose of the RET scheme. By contrast, the deals which are currently being done are effectively valuing income from LGCs at very low levels, especially for years after 2022, when the targets under the RET will have been fully met and the market is forecast to be saturated with LGCs.  The ESB has indicated that the RET scheme will continue in effect until the end of 2030 and electricity contracted for the purposes of the RET scheme would not be treated differently to new generation coming to market after the introduction of the emissions guarantee.

方针打算需要向相关合规监视机构刊行和提交证书，而保障打算并不涉及刊行和提交任何许可或证照。相反，保障打算主要的执行方法是零售商计较其用户用电量的均匀排放强度并确保该等强度在逼迫划定范畴内。依据当前保障打算的计划方案，零售商也能购置“排放量抵销权”作为淘汰负荷排放量强度的一种方法，但该方法在方针打算中并不被愿意。另外，固然澳大利亚当局尚未就排放量抵销权的利用做出最终抉择，澳大利亚新能源行业已对实行排放量抵销机制表达了猛烈的阻挡。

靠得住性担保及减排担保的简要先容

为实现上述能源行业的安稳太过，保障打算在计划之初就致力于确保：（1）保持电力系统的靠得住性（即电力系统可以不中断地提供充实的电力）；（2）使电力行业的碳排放减排方针到达澳大利亚做出的国际理睬；并（3）以最低的整体本钱实现上述方针。依据保障打算草案提议的方案，电力零售商为该靠得住性担保和减排担保的主要执行人。详细而言，如电力市场管理者预计将会浮上电力欠缺的环境，电力零售商将按拍照关靠得住性担保要求采购特定比例的可调理电力（如基于蓄电池、抽水蓄能、煤炭、天然气和其他液体燃料等能源所发的电力），同时还需维持特定的碳排放量尺度（即每发一度电所发生的均匀碳排放量不得高出某个设定的临界值）。因此，电力零售商也将需要采购由可再生能源生产的电力。很明明，保障打算不是一个基于电价津贴的方案。

Impact of the NEG on the Renewable Energy Target scheme

For over a decade, the Australian energy industry has been dealing with an energy trilemma of how to transition to sources of energy that are affordable, reliable and clean. During this period, household electricity prices have more than doubled, South Australia had a statewide blackout (in 2016) and in 2017 there were load-shedding events in New South Wales. Of course, Australia also committed under the Paris Agreement to reduce its carbon emissions by 26-28 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030.

The implementation of the new reliability and emissions standards may open up new markets for Chinese power developers of interest. For example, wind and solar (with storage capacity), pumped hydro, gas or any other power supply with generation capacity reserve function that allows rapid dispatch at short notice. In the meantime, renewable energy sources such as wind and solar (with or without storage capacity), hydro and bio-energy will be needed to meet the emissions guarantee. Of course, demands for frequency control, network support and demand management services will also be increased as a result.  The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) has recently identified grid scale batteries as providing excellent network support and control services, and is considering opening up a new market for this high performance support.

依据保障打算，为了满脚打算实施的要求，零售商可以通过与供电企业签署相应的购电协议以到达落低排放可能零排放，可能以最低的本钱得到可调理电力的发电本领。

由于最终的靠得住性尺度仍在拟定进程中，我们在此接头差异的尺度将怎样影响零售商行为，中国舆情网，而该行为又将进一步对电力供应侧的行为组成影响。首先，当靠得住性方针被配置在par公道范畴内，或恒久预测显示可调理电力大概不脚以满脚岑岭需求时，电力零售商将更有大概签定新的恒久供电条约以满脚自身的合规要求，这将进一步鼓励对新电厂的投资。相对而言，若是靠得住性方针被激活的大概性不大（当恒久预测显示市场上已有脚够的可调理电力以满脚岑岭需求），或固然靠得住性方针被激活，但零售商需要供给的可调理电力并未明明高于其已经锁定的未来电力采购中可调理电力的供给量，则拥有发电类资产的零售商只需进一步压榨其现有的发电资源并小幅提高其可调理电力供给量即可满脚其近期的合规义务。在此环境下，也就意味着电力供应侧的新投资将很可贵以增长。但总体来说，我们以为实现靠得住性担保和减排担保将会给澳大利亚的电力开辟商和运营商提供的政策确定性，这显然对市场是有利的。

保障打算对可再生能源方针打算的影响